September seasonality

Go to the new website for the performance of all the S&P 500 stocks for the month of September http://www.ripetrade.com/2011/08/september-seasonality.html

Short squeeze screen for August 30th

Please go to the new website for the August 30th short squeeze screen. http://www.ripetrade.com/2011/08/short-squeeze-screen-for-august-th.html

An email from a subscriber

I just received a very nice email from a subscriber. Details here

Link List for week of Aug 22nd 2011

Check our new website for our weekly list of articles you may find interesting.

http://www.ripetrade.com/2011/08/link-list-week-of-august-nd.html

Stock Trading Strategy

Check out this stock trading strategy at our new website http://www.ripetrade.com/2011/08/stock-trading-strategy.html

2 day RSI calculator

We trade a few strategies that exit based on a 2 day RSI value. This is a link for a 2 day RSI calculator. This calculator enables you to enter an RSI value and ticker, the output tells you what price the stock or ETF will have to close at, to get the desired 2 period RSI value.

You can find this calculator under the "resources" drop down at our new web address http://www.ripetrade.com/

Enjoy.

New website

We just finished building our new website and are happy with the results. Please check it out and let us know what you think http://www.ripetrade.com/

All blog posts will be made at the new address going forward. http://www.ripetrade.com/

Short squeeze screen for August 15th

This is a list of short squeeze candidates that will get updated when new short interest data comes out on the 15th and end of month.

If you are familiar with Phil Erlangers work you will know that he has found success at buying stocks in an uptrend that have an increase in short interest. Below is the equity curve of Mr. Erlangers short squeeze setup.

Below is a list of the stocks with very high short interest as a percentage of the float and sorted by 6 month relative strength. The idea is that it is bullish that these stocks are able to continue higher with such dour sentiment and heavy selling from shorts. When the shorts admit defeat and throw in the towel, they have to buy and cover the position which will boost the stocks even higher.

The screen was down -12% from the August 2nd screen. As a comparison the S&P was down -6.4%.

Link List Aug 15th 2011

Here is our weekly list of articles you may find interesting.

Weekly re-cap

PERCENT BUY INDEX DEEPLY OVERSOLD

High Speed Trading And Market Declines

"When in doubt blame it on the computers."

Day After Big Down Days

Buffett: The lower stocks go, the more I buy

Death cross sell signal imminent

A European Update

Dow 20k

Lots of Stocks Have Recently Become High Yielders

Country Stock Market Performance Year to Date

Putting the correction into perspective.

Why investors panic

Gold Sentiment indicator

Where the Black Swans Hide and the Ten Best Days Myth

The 6 Surefire Keys to Dominate Anything You Want

Market bottoms after 90% upside days

FYI- After the big market advance on August 9th the NYSE put in what is referred to as a 90% upside volume day, this action in breadth is indicative of a major market bottom, especially when it occurs after a series of 90% downside volume days, which it has. If the market stays strong today we may get another 90% upside volume day. Here is a link to watch the days volume breadth.

To calculate the days Upside percentage volume simply divide the total upside volume by the total volume of the day, the yahoo link does this calculation for you.

According to Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports Inc. “These two events – panic selling (one or more 90% Downside Days) and panic buying (a 90% Upside Day, or on rare occasions, two back-to back 80% Upside Days) – produce very powerful probabilities that a major trend reversal has begun, and that the market’s Sweet Spot is ready to be savored.” You can read the full details of Paul’s, Charles H. Dow Award winning research paper “ IDENTIFYING BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS AND NEW BULL MARKETS “

Below is a table that shows the results of buying the S&P on the day after a 90% upside volume day that was preceded by a 90% downside volume day the day before or 2 days before. The exit was a time based 50 trade day exit. The average 50 day return was 2.95% , as a comparison the average 50 day return for the S&P on all other days was 1.3%. The Paul Desmond paper was published in 2002 so I also broke the average 50 day return for before(2.12%) and after( 4.32%) the 2002 date that the paper was published.

** Note- this table does not have all the occurrences that are cited in the Paul Desmond research paper because I used a more strict definition of entry criteria, which was to buy only when a 90% upside day occurs after a prior 90% downside day on the day before or 2 days before.

Trade with the odds in your favor, details here.

SPY TNA IWB IWM QQQ QID QLD SD SDS EWJ EEM IWO IWN XLE XLF

Link List Aug 6th 2011

Here is our weekly list of articles you may find interesting.

Weekly re-cap

Downgrade – what it all means

Greenspan: 'United States can pay any debt because we can always print money'

1 in 3 chance of future downgrade

Circuit breaker levels

BESPOKE: Global trading ranges highlight the haves and the have nots

Roger McNamee: Everything is changing

I recommend you do not watch television and make a concentrated effort to read less news and opinionated social media.

Corrective Action

NDX Stocks Illustrate the Washout

How the Dow performs after big declines

Tilt and Risk Management

Buy this market

How to use the Fama French Model

How Does This Bear Compare to Others?

S&P 500′s P/E Drops to 21-Year Low

Which Stocks Look Ready to Pop and Drop with Earnings Next Week?

Investing Decision-Making

7 Common Investor Mistakes

Mr. Bean totals his McLaren F1

Steelers coach sells Mercedes to team cafeteria worker for $20

VIX up 35% in a day

The VIX spiked up 35% today, a good sign of panic selling. Historically, the VIX has had a 1 day move of 30% or greater only 14 times . The next day the S&P was higher 10 out of the 14 occurrences for an average 1 day move of .66%!

Below is a table that shows all the prior occurrences of the VIX spiking greater than 30% in 1 day then buying the S&P at the close and selling at the close on the next day.
Our intermediate term S&P model is still sitting safely in cash. Join our team and trade with the odds, details here.

VXX, VXZ, XIV, SPY SDS, TNA, EWJ, EEM, XLF, XLE,QQQ, QID

Time to Buy ??

I believe that we are very close to an oversold bounce because of the huge spike in bonds & VIX, yesterdays TRIN @ 4.47 McClellan Oscillator @ -270, consecutive number of down days, NDX RSI strategy on a buy, lower Bollinger band system on a buy, additionally 30% of our data base is on the Ripe/ Sharpe long screen.

SPY @ 124 TNA IWB IWM QQQ QID QLD SD SDS EWJ EEM IWO IWN XLE XLF

Short squeeze screen Aug 2 2011

This is a list of short squeeze candidates that will get updated when new short interest data comes out on the 15th and end of month.

If you are familiar with Phil Erlangers work you will know that he has found success at buying stocks in an uptrend that have an increase in short interest. Below is the equity curve of Mr. Erlangers short squeeze setup.

Below is a list of the stocks with very high short interest as a percentage of the float and sorted by 6 month relative strength. The idea is that it is bullish that these stocks are able to continue higher with such dour sentiment and heavy selling from shorts. When the shorts admit defeat and throw in the towel, they have to buy and cover the position which will boost the stocks even higher.

The screen was down -5.6% from the July 18th post. As a comparison the S&P was down -3.8%.

5 consecutive down days

Yesterday was the 6th consecutive lower close in the S&P / SPY. Today could be the 7th.

Historically when the SPY was bought after 5 consecutive lower closes, then sold on the 1^stup close, the setup would have made you money on 42 out of 47 trades a 89% win rate and the average trade was .95% return.

See performance report below

This is what the pattern looks like on a chart .

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SPY , QQQ, EWJ, IWB, XLF, EEM, TNA, TZA, QID, SDS, SD