Are you ready for some

Football

Ripe Trades for February 2nd

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008. These are the stocks that qualify for Monday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

These setups don’t have a stop loss, our research has showed through back testing that this strategy works best without a stop loss. A few ways to limit the risk without a stop loss are 1) Position Size - lowering your position size lessens risk. 2) Watch out for single sector exposure, don’t let one single sector become too big a percentage of your account. 3) Consider using options for blowout protection. For longs consider buying way out of the money puts and for shorts consider buying way out of the money calls. This will create a catastrophe stop that protects you even if the stock has an extreme overnight gap.

These setups are for education and entertainment purposes only this is not a recommendation or solicitation. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is short as of the close on January 29th. This model will cover the short and get long at the close on Monday Feb 2nd if the VIX stays below 45.53.

The NASDAQ model is short as of the close on January 29th. This model will cover the short at the open on Monday Feb 2nd

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 22nd. No open orders. FYI 2 new VIX ETFs started trading on Monday VXX and VXZ.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Million Dollar Traders Episode 3 Profit vs People

Below you will find the 3rd episode of the reality TV series Million dollar trader which is about eight ordinary people being given a million dollars and two months to run their own hedge fund. Can they make a killing? If you missed them episode 1 and episode 2 are here.

Part 1 of 6


Part 2 of 6




Part 3 of 6



Part 4 of 6



Part 5 of 6


Part 6 of 6

S&P 500 a potential short for Jan 30

The current price pattern in the S&P and sharp decline in the long bond set up a bearish short term scenario if tomorrows open in the S&P futures is above today’s high 859.5. This pattern has occurred 46 times and all 46 instances the S&P has declined when using the below entry and exit criteria. FYI our intermediate term (1-7 day) S&P model and intermediate term (1-7 day) NDX model both got short at the close today so this short term (1-3 day) pattern is a nice confirmation trade while those models are in a drawdown.

If open is greater than 859.5 then SS @ open minus 2 pts
Exit 1st profitable open or 2% stop loss

Out of the 4 short term trades that have hit since we started this blog, we made 15pts on the Jan 15h long entry, lost 17.3 pts from Jan 13th long entry, lost17 pts on November 18th, but made 52 pts on the win from October 28th Net, the short term system is up 32.7pts in 4 trades.

Daily Breakout candidates January 30

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( AMZN, CA,COST,CTAS,FMCN,HANS,
IACI,INTU,NIHD,SNDK,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are here

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is short as of the close on January 29th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is short as of the close on January 29th. No open orders.

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 22nd. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Daily Breakout candidates January 29

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. (
BBBY, CA,COST,CTXS,FMCN,IACI,INTU,NIHD,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades for January 29

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.These are the stocks that qualify for Thursday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. This model may sell the long and get short at tomorrows close January 29th if the VIX stays greater than 38.09.

The NASDAQ model is long as of the close on January 21st. The long trade will get stopped out @ 1177. This model may sell the long position and get short at tomorrows close January 29th if the VXN closes greater than 39.17 or if the VXN low stays greater than 38.99 or if the VXN closes greater than the VXN open.

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 22nd. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Daily Breakout candidates January 27

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BBBY,BIDU,COST,CTAS,CTXS,FMCN,
GILD,IACI,INTU,NIHD,SBUX,SNDK,TEVA,
VRTX) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades for January 27

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.These are the stocks that qualify for Wednesday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.
Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.
Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. This model may sell the long and get short at tomorrows close January 28th if the VIX stays greater than 42.2.

The NASDAQ model is long as of the close on January 21st. This model may sell the long position at tomorrows close January 28th if the VXN closes greater than 43.1 or if the VXN low stays greater than 42.58 or if the VXN closes greater than the VXN open.

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 22nd. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Trade day of month strategy

As promised, I will try and come up with some type of strategy based on the trade day of month study I presented here in Part 1 and part 2. Today, I ran an optimization report to buy the S&P 500 on trade day X and sell on trade day Y. The most trade days in any given month is 23 so for the X variable I tested a combination of entry’s from TDOM 1 through TDOM 23 and for the Y variable I tested a combination of exits based on TDOM 1 through TDOM 23. A total of 529 combinations were tested, entries and exits were based on the closing price of the S&P 500 index. This strategy was tested on the S&P 500 cash index on data from 1950 to present. Based on total net profit the optimal trade day of month to buy is the 8th and the optimal trade day of month to exit is the 2nd TDOM in the following month. For example this strategy got long at the close on the 8th TDOM in December which was December 10th and sold the long on the 2nd TDOM which was January 5th then got long again on the 8th TDOM which was January 13th and will sell the current long position on the 2nd TDOM which is February 3rd. This strategy would have taken 1,613 points out of the S&P while only being invested 70% of the time since 1950. As a comparison the S&P is up 815 points over the same time period. Below you will find the performance report on the strategy of buying at the close on the 8th TDOM and selling at the close on the 2nd TDOM, these performance metrics are based on trading 1 share of the S&P 500 cash index since 1950.
Rules
Buy on the 8th TDOM market on close
Sell on the 2nd TDOM market on close
Results based on trading 1 share of the S&P 500 cash index since 1950
Click image to enlarge.

I then took a look at the break down of the performance results based on monthly returns. Below you will see that the months of February, July and September on average have lost money. If we don’t take trades during those 3 months the total net profit increases to 1,959 S&P points from1,613 points. So now the strategy makes even more money and is invested for a lot less time. See performance results below.

Rules
Buy on the 8th TDOM for every month except February, July and September, MOC.
Sell on the 2nd TDOM market on close
Results based on trading 1 share of the S&P 500 cash index since 1950
Click image to enlarge.

One final thought is that if this concept would have made almost 2.5 times the amount of buy and hold , this implies that the market must have declined during the periods when the strategy is out of the market. If we short the market rather than just sell the long, the total net profit increases to 3,186 S&P points. This strategy is always in the market, either long or short. See performance results below.

Rules
Buy on the 8th TDOM for every month except February, July and September, MOC.
Sell Short on the 2nd TDOM market on close
Results based on trading 1 share of the S&P 500 cash index since 1950
Click image to enlarge.

To get a better understanding of the optimal TDOM long / short concept just described, below you will find a list of all the trade dates and prices from last year. Last year happened to be a good one in which the strategy returned 75%.
Click image to enlarge

Daily Breakout candidates January 27

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BBBY, BIDU,CELG,CHKP,CTAS,
CTXS,ESRX,FAST,FMCN,GILD,IACI,NIHD,NVDA,SNDK,
STLD,TEVA ) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades for January 27

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.These are the stocks that qualify for Tuesday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is long as of the close on January 21st. This model may sell the long position at tomorrows close January 27th if the VXN closes greater than 45 or if the VXN low stays greater than 44.58 or if the VXN closes greater than the VXN open.

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 22nd. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Daily Breakout candidates January 26

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BBBY, BIDU,CELG,CHKP,CTAS,CTXS,
ESRX,FAST,GILD,HANS,HSIC,IACI,NVDA,

PETM, SNDK,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades for January 26

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.
These are the stocks that qualify for Monday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.
Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.
Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is long as of the close on January 21st.

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 22nd. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Profit and loss, 2nd episode of Million dollar trader

Below you will find the 2nd episode of the reality TV series Million dollar trader which is about eight ordinary people being given a million dollars and two months to run their own hedge fund. Will the old man make it? Can they make a killing?

Episode 2, Part 1 of 6


Episode 2, Part 2 of 6


Episode 2, Part 3 of 6


Episode 2, Part 4 of 6


Episode 2 Part 5 of 6


Episode 2, Part 6 of 6


If you missed it Episode 1 titled “Make me a trader “ can be viewed here.

Have a great weekend

Trade day of month Part 2

I’d like to take another look at trade day of month, yesterday we looked at the seasonal effect of trade day of month based on the change in the S&P from open to close. Today Ill show you the performance results of trade day of month based on buying at the close and selling at the next days open, this concept will take advantage of the overnight bullish bias of the market that we talked about here. Again, yesterdays TDOM study was based on intraday activity, today we examine TDOM based on overnight activity. FYI, TDOM = “trade day of month” for an explanation of the term see yesterdays post.
Below you will find a table that shows the historical performance results of each trade day of month overnight activity based on the entire data set of the S&P 500 futures since 1982. The back test was programmed to buy the S&P at the close then sell the trade out, at the open of the next day. These performance metrics show the historical close to open results of buying 1 S&P futures contract based on the trade day of month since 1982. You will probably notice that most of the total net profits occur during the back half of the month, whereas in yesterdays post on TDOM based on intraday activity most of the profits occurred on the front end of the month

At the bottom of the table you will see a column labeled “average of all days” this shows the performance stats of buying the close and selling the open without regard to TDOM you can use this as a comparison of the Trade day of month performance.

On Monday I will try to pull a couple of the pieces to this puzzle together and show a seasonal trading strategy based on the TDOM effect.

Click image to enlarge

Daily Breakout candidates January 23

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BBBY,CELG,CHKP,CTXS,FAST,GILD,
HANS,HSIC,IACI,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades for January 23

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.

These are the stocks that qualify for Friday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is long as of the close on January 21st.

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 22nd. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Trade day of month

As a follow up to my post on Day of week trading edge post , in this post I’d like to investigate the seasonality of trade day of month. If you aren’t familiar with the term “trading day of month” is simply a way to differentiate the days of the month based on actual trading days when the market is open, so Saturdays, Sundays and holidays are excluded in the trade day of month count. For example last month in December there were only 22 trading days because the market was closed on Christmas. However the month of October had 23 trading days because there wasn’t a holiday during that month. Below you will find a table that shows the historical performance results of each trade day of month based on the entire data set of the S&P 500 futures since 1982. The back test was programmed to buy the S&P at the open then sell the trade out, at the close of the same day as entry. These performance metrics show the historical open to close results of buying 1 S&P futures contract based on the trade day of month since 1982. You will probably notice that most of the total net profits occur during the first half of the month. I’m not sure why this phenomena exists, maybe it has something to do with the way people get paid at the end or middle of the calendar month. Whatever the reason may be, this is useful market information given the fact that historically the S&P has declined during a typical day which was written about in our overnight trading edge post

At the bottom of the table you will see a column labeled “average of all days” this shows the performance stats of buying the open and selling the close for evry day in the dataset (6,750 days) without regard to TDOM you can use this as a comparison of the Trade day of month performance. See part 2 to study TDOM based on close to open, here.
Click image to enlarge.
Click image to enlarge.

See part 2 to study TDOM based on close to open, here.

Daily Breakout candidates January 22

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BBBY,CHKP,CTXS,GILD,HANS,HSIC,INFY,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.
The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades for January 22nd

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.These are the stocks that qualify for Thursday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.
Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.
Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is long as of the close on January 21st.

The VIX Model is short as of the close on January 16th. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Daily Breakout candidates January 21

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. (BBBY, CHKP, CTXS, GILD, INFY, RYAAY,
TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.

Ripe Trades for January 21st

There aren't any short setups and lots of buys, this skew is probably a bullish sign.Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.
These are the stocks that qualify for Wednesday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is flat and in cash. This model will get long at the close tomorrow January 21st if the VXN stays below 55.59 or if the VXN closes below the VXN open or if the VXN closes below 54.45.

The VIX Model is short as of the close on January 16th. No open orders.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Daily Breakout candidates

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( AMLN, BBBY, CA, DISCA, HSIC,
PDCO,RYAAY, TEVA, XRAY) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.

The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades January 20th

There aren't any short setups and lots of buys, this skew is probably a bullish sign.Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.

These are the stocks that qualify for Tuesday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.
Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.
The NASDAQ model is flat and in cash.

The VIX Model is long as of the close on January 16th. No open orders.

Make me a trader

The BBC has aired a reality TV series with striking similarity to the story of the original turtles. The main difference is these guys get thrown into the ring with out any training or system, the turtles had a system of defined rules and were very successful. The first episode is available below as 6, 10 minute you tube clips.

Eight ordinary people are given a million dollars, a fortnight of intensive training and two months to run their own hedge fund. Can they make a killing?

The experiment reveals the inner workings of a City trading floor. The money is supplied by hedge fund manager Lex van Dam: he wants to see if ordinary people can beat the professionals, and he expects a return on his investment too. Yet no-one foresees the financial crisis that lies ahead.

The traders were selected in spring 2008, before the US credit crisis gathered pace. The successful candidates were chosen, trained and dispatched to their specially created trading room in the heart of the Square Mile. Among them are an environmentalist, a soldier, a boxing promoter, an entrepreneur, a retired IT consultant, a vet, a student and a shopkeeper.

As the novices learn the dark art of trading stocks and shares, the financial markets start to buckle. Making money takes second place to basic survival as the brutal realities of global economics take their toll on the traders. How do they cope? Will they secure themselves a bonus, or walk away with nothing?

Part 1 of 6


Part 2 of 6


Part 3 of 6


Part 4 of 6


Part 5 of 6


Final part 6 of 6


Episode 2 can be viewed here.

Have a great weekend

Here is an e book of Wall street stories the book that launched Edwin Lefèvre's literary career, Wall Street Stories is considered by many to be his most memorable work, second only to Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, his classic fictionalization of the life of Jesse Livermore.

Ripe Trades

There aren't any short setups and lots of buys, this skew is probably a bullish sign.
Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.

These are the stocks that qualify for Thursday with the entry price limits specified .

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less

Daily Breakout candidates

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. (
BIIB, DISCA,PDCO, RYAAY,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.

The real time 2008 performance results are here

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is flat and in cash.

The VIX Model is flat and in cash. This model will get short the VIX at the close tomorrow January 16th if the VIX stays less than 55.16 or if the VIX closes less than the VIX open or if the VIX closes less than 51 and closes greater than 45.9.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Bullish thoughts

Our short term trade entry from yesterday was stopped out at 846.2. However, the conditions are still present for a short term market bounce. In fact the current conditions of the market make me even more bullish. Some of the things I’m looking at are the 14% 1 day spike in VIX, a TRIN reading of 3, a 1.5% 1 day rise in long bond prices, 2 day RSI less than 1.5 for the S&P and the McClellan oscillator below -100.

The table below shows the historical 5 day performance of the S&P 500 futures after each of the above mentioned conditions were met. As a comparison to the current conditions I also show the 5 day S&P performance of the exact opposite of each one of todays conditions.

These performance statistics are based on the entire data history of the S&P 500 since 1982 based on trading 1 big S&P futures contract. The performance results are based on a 5 day holding period as the exit. For an explanation of the performance metrics click here.

In addition to the bullish conditions mentioned above the current price pattern in the S&P is also bullish. If tomorrow January 15th the S&P opens below todays high (853.5) and above todays low (832.5) then buy @ open + 6.3pts. Below are the historical performance results of the current pattern based on trading 1 big futures contract and using the exit and entry criteria described below.

If open is greater than 832.5 and open is less than 853.5 then Buy @ open + 6.3 points
Exit 1st profitable open or 2% stop loss.

Ripe Trades

There aren't any short setups and lots of buys, this skew is probably a bullish sign.

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.

These are the stocks that qualify for Thursday with the entry price limits specified .

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less than my entry price.

Daily Breakout candidates

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BIIB,CA,DISCA,PDCO,RYAAY,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gapFollow this link breakout trade for the historical results of the breakout setup.
The real time 2008 performance results are here

Stock market trading model Update

The S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is Long as of the close on January 8th. This model will stop out of the ND futures long position @ 1149.5.

The VIX Model is flat and in cash. This model will get short the VIX at the close tomorrow January 15th if the VIX stays less than 51.55 or if the VIX closes less than the VIX open or if the VIX closes less than 49.14 and closes greater than 44.226.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Daily Breakout candidates

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BBBY,BIIB,CA,RYAAY,SPLS,TEVA,
VRTX) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gapFollow this link breakout trade for the historical results of the breakout setup.

The real time 2008 performance results are here

Ripe Trades

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.
These are the stocks that qualify for Wednesday with the entry price limits specified .

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.

Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less than my entry price.

Stock market trading model and short term system trade update

Yesterdays short term long position in the S&P futures will exit at the open based on a 1st profitable exit tomorrow January 14th if the S&P futures open above 863.5. The stop loss is 846.2 .

The Intermediate term S&P Model is long as of the close on January 9th. No open orders.

The NASDAQ model is Long as of the close on January 8th. This model will stop out of the ND futures long position @ 1149.5.

The VIX Model is short as of the close on January 8th. This model will stop out of the trade VIX short @ 49.37.

The road map image at left shows the current long and short term influences on the S&P and real time out of sample performance results on the models mentioned above, for a longer term model performance history click on the links above.

Ripe Trades

Below you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.
These are the stocks that qualify for Tuesday with the entry price limits specified .

Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.
Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less than my entry price.

Daily Breakout candidates

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( BIIB, RYAAY,TEVA) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap
Follow this link breakout trade for the historical results of the breakout setup. The real time 2008 performance results are here