
Happy Memorial Day!
The S&P Model is long as of the close on May 14th. No open orders.
The NASDAQ model is short as of the close on May 20th. No open orders.
The VIX Model is long as of the close on April 30th. This model will sell the long at the open then will get short at the close on Tuesday May 26th if the VIX stays below 32.71 or if the VIX closes below 32.63 or if the VIX closes below the VIX open.
Ripe Trades

At left you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sample performance review of the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008.These are the stocks that qualify for Tuesday with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.
Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.
Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less than my entry price.
These setups don’t have a stop loss, our research has showed through back testing that this strategy works best without a stop loss. A few ways to limit the risk without a stop loss are 1) Position Size - lowering your position size lessens risk. 2) Watch out for single sector exposure, don’t let one single sector become too big a percentage of your account. 3) Consider using options for blowout protection. For longs consider buying way out of the money puts and for shorts consider buying way out of the money calls. This will create a catastrophe stop that protects you even if the stock has an extreme overnight gap.
These setups are for education and entertainment purposes only this is not a recommendation or solicitation. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
Breakout candidates
Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. (ADBE,ADP,AKAM,ALTR,AMZN,ATVI,BIDU,BIIB,CELG,CTSH,DTV,ESRX,EXPD,FWLT,GENZ,
GOOG,HOLX,ILMN,INTC,JAVA,MICC,NIHD,NTAP,ORCL,ORLY,RIMM,RYAAY,SBUX,SHLD,
SIAL,SPLS,SYMC,TEVA,URBN,VRTX,XRAY,YHOO) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are hereOne thought on the breakout candidates is to incorporate trend and only take buy signals of stocks in an uptrend and sell signals for stocks in a downtrend. To get a free analysis of trend click here.
4 comments:
First you had interesting girls and backtested results on new trading concepts - ex.- vix/spx allocation, very good stuff. Then you lost the girls even though most people voted for continuation and stopped testing trading concepts. At this point as far as I'm concerned a lot of people lost interest on your website. Sorry to inform you BUTT without a little piz ASS your site is just like any other trying to sell a few trading ideas. A dime a dozen. Congrats on coming to the conclusion that sex sells, now if only we could get some historicaly tested quantifiable and statisticaly sound trading ideas - your site would be a lot more interesting. Otherwise it's Quantifiable Edges, Mktsci,worldbeta etc. The girls I'll find elsewhere!!
I guess you’re not interested in the fact that the S&P model is up +12% and NDX model is up over 30% since we started the blog on Oct 20th. All the other stuff is hypothetical mumbo jumbo, the model results are real time performance that blows the market away. If you aren’t happy leave and go kick your cat.
I for myself am very grateful for this blog and the exit/entry signals. The nasty comment actually encouraged me to donate to this fine blog tomorrow. I can only hope you guys continue sharing from your experience. There is a reason 85% of traders lose money and if I hadn't started to tell myself at some point to trust your models and trade them as-is and not second-guess them any more I would have never made this important mental change of thinking in probablities. Now, I'm not saying I will always be consitently profitable and never falling back into my old, wrong ways, but you guys helped me a lot lot lot.
Thanks again.
P.S. I would have preferred no girls ;-)
One more question: would the new VIX ETF VXX be appropriate traing the VIX model?
Post a Comment