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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

S&P a potential short term buy

The current price pattern in the S&P and spike in bond prices is bullish for the short term, if tomorrows open April 1st is below 782.3. This pattern has occurred 31 times since 1982 and 31 trades have been wins with the entry and exit criteria below. FYI our intermediate term S&P and NDX model are both long from yesterdays close and our VIX model also got short yesterday.
If open is less than 782.3 then Buy @ market
Exit 1st profitable open or 2% stop loss

Out of the 5 short term trades that have hit since we started this blog, we made 12pts on the Feb 24th long entry, 15pts on the Jan 15th long entry, lost 17.3 pts from Jan 13th long entry, lost 17 pts on November 18th, and made 52 pts on the win from October 28th Net, the short term system is up 44.7pts in 5 trades.

The performance results are based on 1 large contract trades since 1982
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No Ripe trades setups for tomorrow.


Breakout candidates

Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. ( ALTR,
AMZN,BIDU,BIIB,CEPH,GILD,HANS,ISRG,LLTC,NVDA,ORLY,QCOM,RIMM,SRCL,VRTX ) The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or bear range pivot in the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are hereOne thought on the breakout candidates is to incorporate trend and only take buy signals of stocks in an uptrend and sell signals for stocks in a downtrend. To get a free analysis of trend click here.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is the opening you discuss the cash or futures?

Anonymous said...

Dear Ripe-Traders,

Thanks again for this blog.

The other important question besides futures or cash market is: was the trade filled this morning then?

Thanks, Joe

Ripe Trade said...

The opening is based on the futures price. Just an FYI , the opening of cash is always equal to the prior days close so you wont ever see a gap in cash. And yes the trade was filled at todays open and will exit at tomorrows open based on the 1st profitable open if the open is greater than todays 781.5 entry. So far 28 S&P pts in 1 day not a bad days work. Sorry for the late reply but Im out of pocket during market hours.