For the next several months I am going to do a series of posts on testing the efficacy of various candlestick patterns on the S&P 500 stocks. I am going to test the list of patterns A-Z, listed on this website http://www.candlestickchart.com/glossary.html . Ill use this website because the pattern description seems to be thorough and the list robust.
Today we test the Breakaway Bullish candlestick pattern.
This is the description as per the Lit Wick website:
How to Identify it
The first day is a long black day
The second day is a black day that gaps below the first day
The third and fourth days continue to in the direction of the second with lower consecutive closes The fifth day is a long white day that closes into the gap between the first and second days
What it Means: A downtrend sees prices bottoming out and leveling off. The result is a long white day which does not close the gap into the body of the first day. This suggests a short term reversal.
We tested this pattern on every one of the S&P 500 stocks since 1990 and compared the performance results to the average 5 day move in all the S&P 500 stocks. The entry was at the open on the day after the breakaway bullish pattern setup and the exit was at the open 5 trading days after entry. This is what the breakaway bullish pattern setup looks
Below are the results of the Breakaway Bullish pattern, and as a comparison the average 5 day holding period of all the S&P 500 stocks and also performance statistics for all S&P 500 stocks while in a down trend. This pattern is extremely rare and after testing each of the S&P 500 stocks individually the pattern only occurred 80 times.
The average 5 day return after a Breakaway bullish pattern was slightly higher than the average random 5 day return. The win percent after a Breakaway bullish pattern was 43.8% which is below the 50.9% win rate from a random 5 day hold.
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