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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Bullish thoughts

Our short term trade entry from yesterday was stopped out at 846.2. However, the conditions are still present for a short term market bounce. In fact the current conditions of the market make me even more bullish. Some of the things I’m looking at are the 14% 1 day spike in VIX, a TRIN reading of 3, a 1.5% 1 day rise in long bond prices, 2 day RSI less than 1.5 for the S&P and the McClellan oscillator below -100.

The table below shows the historical 5 day performance of the S&P 500 futures after each of the above mentioned conditions were met. As a comparison to the current conditions I also show the 5 day S&P performance of the exact opposite of each one of todays conditions.

These performance statistics are based on the entire data history of the S&P 500 since 1982 based on trading 1 big S&P futures contract. The performance results are based on a 5 day holding period as the exit. For an explanation of the performance metrics click here.
In addition to the bullish conditions mentioned above the current price pattern in the S&P is also bullish. If tomorrow January 15th the S&P opens below todays high (853.5) and above todays low (832.5) then buy @ open + 6.3pts. Below are the historical performance results of the current pattern based on trading 1 big futures contract and using the exit and entry criteria described below.

If open is greater than 832.5 and open is less than 853.5 then Buy @ open + 6.3 points
Exit 1st profitable open or 2% stop loss.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

so just to make sure I understand you, are you saying since we opened above the low of yesterday, buy 6.3 points above the open if we get there? thanks

Anonymous said...

yes , 6.3 pts above todays open is a stop entry @ 842.3

Ripe Trade said...

You both have it right today's entry was @ 842.3

Anonymous said...

15 point profit on the trade. Nice call